Game The short answer
Across 3 independent positions, an edge-pawn opening move never came out top of the candidates compared. The gap to the top candidate averaged 0.38 pawns and reached 0.51. Not losing, then — but consistently a little worse.
Those figures are measured against the highest-scoring move of this kind in each position. Played less well, the same idea costs more: the worst case in this run was g5 (Black’s reply to 1.d4), at 1.57. (“Top” here means top of the candidates compared, not the best move among all legal moves — see how we tested it.)
What we are testing
"Take the centre" is the first thing anyone learns about the opening: pieces in the middle cover more squares and develop faster. But the first move comes before anything has happened. Can a single move really make a measurable difference? We analysed eight representative first moves from the starting position.
How we tested it
Testing a rule of thumb in one position cannot tell you whether you are seeing the rule or just that position. So we picked 3 positions of different character — open and closed, White to move and Black to move. In each one, every candidate is played and the resulting position is searched. All the numbers are real output, not estimates.
What is compared is a set of candidate moves relevant to the article, not every legal move: the move under test, and the moves a player would normally consider there. So the top row of a table is not "the best move in the position" but the highest-scoring move among those compared.
On top of that, each position is also searched once with no candidate list, and the move the engine itself picks is recorded (it is shown with each position below). This is there to catch a candidate list that quietly decides the answer: the generator aborts if that free choice beats the top candidate by 0.50 or more. Across the current data the largest such difference is 0.18.
Position by position
| Position | Top candidate | Move tested | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| White’s first move | e4 +0.40 | a3 −0.11 | 0.51 |
| Black’s reply to 1.e4 | e5 −0.34 | a6 −0.62 | 0.28 |
| Black’s reply to 1.d4 | d5 −0.31 | a6 −0.65 | 0.34 |
Position 1｜White’s first move
The starting position
FENrnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - 0 1
The highest-scoring candidate was e4 (+0.40). a3 scored −0.11, a gap of 0.51.
Searched with no candidate list imposed, at the same depth, the engine also chose e4.
Tap a candidate move to change the board
| Move | Evaluation | Diff vs top candidate |
|---|---|---|
| e4 | +0.40 | baseline |
| Nf3 | +0.32 | −0.08 |
| d4 | +0.30 | −0.10 |
| c4 | +0.18 | −0.22 |
| a3 | −0.11 | −0.51 |
| h4 | −0.35 | −0.75 |
| b4 | −0.38 | −0.78 |
| g4 | −1.05 | −1.45 |
Position 2｜Black’s reply to 1.e4
1.e4
FENrnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/4P3/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQKBNR b KQkq - 0 1
The highest-scoring candidate was e5 (−0.34). a6 scored −0.62, a gap of 0.28.
Searched with no candidate list imposed, at the same depth, the engine also chose e5.
Tap a candidate move to change the board
| Move | Evaluation | Diff vs top candidate |
|---|---|---|
| e5 | −0.34 | baseline |
| c6 | −0.39 | −0.05 |
| e6 | −0.45 | −0.11 |
| c5 | −0.49 | −0.15 |
| a6 | −0.62 | −0.28 |
| d5 | −0.66 | −0.32 |
| h6 | −0.75 | −0.41 |
| f6 | −1.13 | −0.79 |
Position 3｜Black’s reply to 1.d4
1.d4
FENrnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/3P4/8/PPP1PPPP/RNBQKBNR b KQkq - 0 1
The highest-scoring candidate was d5 (−0.31). a6 scored −0.65, a gap of 0.34.
Searched with no candidate list imposed, at the same depth, the engine also chose d5.
Tap a candidate move to change the board
| Move | Evaluation | Diff vs top candidate |
|---|---|---|
| d5 | −0.31 | baseline |
| Nf6 | −0.32 | −0.01 |
| e6 | −0.42 | −0.11 |
| f5 | −0.63 | −0.32 |
| a6 | −0.65 | −0.34 |
| h6 | −0.73 | −0.42 |
| g5 | −1.88 | −1.57 |
Where the difference comes from
The moves at the top are the ones that push a central pawn or develop a piece towards the centre. All of them score positive. The flank pawn pushes all land in negative territory.
The engine lines explain why. The lowest-scoring move, g4, is met by 1...d5 2.e3 h5, immediately going after the advanced pawn. A flank pawn does nothing for the centre and loosens the squares around its own king, so the move mostly creates a target.
It also makes sense that a3 is the mildest of the flank moves: it only steps forward one square and barely touches the king’s shelter.
Exceptions
A negative number of this size does not decide a game. Flank openings are played in practice, often precisely to take an opponent out of preparation.
What the numbers show is not that the first move settles the game, but that even on move one there is a measurable difference between working on the centre and not.
What this does and does not show
- It shows: what the engine returned for these 3 positions, with the chosen candidates searched to depth 20. The numbers are the raw output; none of them were adjusted afterwards.
- It does not show: anything about "all positions" — a sample of 3 is a very small slice of chess.
- The assumption: an evaluation assumes best play from both sides. Over the board, an inaccurate reply changes everything.
- Reproducing it: every number here is built from chess-analysis.json, the raw output of the run — positions, candidates, scores and principal variations. Running the same engine with the settings above reproduces them exactly: the search is single-threaded, the hash is cleared before each position, and the depth is fixed. A different engine version or hash size will give different numbers.
What to remember at the board
- From move one, central moves occupy the top of the table
- Flank pawn pushes tend to score negative
- They neither help the centre nor keep the king’s shelter intact
- Still, the first move alone does not decide the game
Try it yourself
You can try the same idea in a real game. Every move is scored by the engine, so the difference between principled and careless moves shows up immediately.